Welcome to The Science Analyst Report
Science has a huge problem: It is made of people.
People have beliefs, biases and are very bad at logical thinking.
The more a person is an expert in a certain area, the more he/she starts using certain tools and tricks that are part of that scientific area. When you often use a hammer, everything looks like a nail. And you are always eager to use the hammer.
Experts of “the science” use false logic. They bend the scientifc methods to avoid evidence, or misinerpret evidence. They are often unable to spot frauds and crimes, when it aligns with their beliefs. They are unaware of their bias, and falsely trust bad research and corrupt agencies. They are unable to work with unknowns, because they do not fit in the models. And they do not work towards a solution, because they can never admit that they may be incorrect.
In this blog I will investigate “The Science” and try to clarify the critical problems with the promoted ideas.
You will see investigations, funny memes, weird science, exposing corrupt science, solutions of scientific problems.
How to tell if something is real?
Science is supposed to tell us something about reality.
But clearly it is not. So how can we investigate?
(I will move this to different articles soon..)
1) Avoid Logical fallacies
Logical Fallacies are a way to push to a conclusion without any good logical reason.
So, if an article uses a lot of logical fallacies, the conclusion in the article is not really supported.
This is a simple list with a card system
Here is a full list on wikipedia
Logical fallacies are very common. Many people are so used to them, that they do often not even understand that they are using them.
Some examples to give an idea:
Strawman - “So you say that you hate science”
Appeal to authority - “All experts in astrology, say that astrology is important for life”
No True scotsman - “Only when you have studied it for 40 years, you are allowed to say something”
Circular argument - “It was always correct, so we do not need to check”
False cause - ”Science is improving, so science is always correct”
2) Scientific method
The scientific method is a very good tool to investigate the truth.
But you need a lot of good information to do it.
Important questions to ask:
Is there evidence?
Is there counter-evidence? Was searched for it?
Is the evidence influenced in any way?
What conditions are important?
Is the science manipulated?
Is there even the slightest possibility of statistical hacking?
Is there survivor bias or observational bias?
Is the science complete?
Can everything be understood from the conclusions?
Are there any weird unexplained coincidences?
What is the group-think or general bias in the field of research?
How well is criticism received?
What is the level of astroturfing and manipulation?
See: Astroturf and manipulation of media messages | Sharyl Attkisson
In this eye-opening talk, veteran investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson shows how astroturf, or fake grassroots movements funded by political, corporate, or other special interests very effectively manipulate and distort media messages.
3) Crime and fraud investigation
Usually there is a report of some crime or fraud.
Then we should investigate it as a crime with no predetermined conclusion.
a) Listen to witnesses, but also account for their bias.
b) follow the money (or career)
Who profited of the crime?
And how?
Where is the money now?
c) Traces?
Is there evidence or weapons or traces that can help us understand what happened exactly?
Can these traces be interpreted differently?
d) Motives? Emotions?
This is not about mind reading, but placing yourself in the same situation.
What do they want? And/or what do they feel?
Is there evidence for that?
e) Did the witnesses or experts lie about something important?
Is it possible that they staged some of the events or some of the evidence?
Did the crime really happen?
What do they have to win or lose in this?
f) Can everything be understood?
4) Bias
Check for biases.
See wikipedia for a full list.
What bias can one expect in the report or article? And does it show?
Were there agencies or donors or politics or beliefs involved? Does this show?
Check the bias and your own bias:
a) What do they (or you) want to be true or false? What are their (or your) feelings about it?
b) How do they (or you) react?
c) Do you come to the same conclusion, if you approach it from the opponent's side?
d) Can you understand why people can come to another conclusion without lying? If they are lying, do they appear hypnotized about the subject?
5) Trust
What people and evidence can we trust?
A lot of the information and evidence has been manipulated to push for a certain conclusion. Or it has been filtered by the bias of the person or system.
What is the evidence that is supported by all sides?
What is the zero-trust evidence? What can you see with your own eyes?
6) Unknowns
Here we can place things that we did not fully understand or don't know for certain.
Sometimes we simply don’t know what happened exactly.
Usually we only know a part of what happened of a very complex situation or system.
Most people try to represent a complex situation as simple as possible.
But experts will often try to use a known model to represent a complex or even an unknown situation.
And this may cause many experts to be more wrong about a situation than most people!
7) Solutions
Often a conclusion shows a huge problem, or even a crime.
This can give an enormous psychological pressure. But relax. If you can discover a crime, someone else can probably do that too. And maybe you are not exactly correct in your discovery, due to your own bias.
a) How important is your conclusion?
How important is it to your life?
b) Share your conclusion with interested people
Pushing your conclusion does not really work, but sharing your path towards it does.
But only if they are interested. Do you get positive feedback?
How do different people think about your idea? How can you represent yourself better?
c) How strong is your conclusion?
Do you need better evidence? How can you get it?
d) Actions?
Don't do more than you can handle. Find friends.
What are the friendly ways in which you can solve the problem that were found?
Can you joke about it?
If there is crime, how can you assist in legal ways?
How important is this to you, and how much time do you want to spend?
The Science Analyst
If everyone simply avoided logical fallacies all would be good but what we see is that even the people who write books on the subject will lapse into logical fallacy when their biases are challenged. It is simply astounding. I post on the site www.logicallyfallacious.com and the owner of the site, Bo Bennett, has published books on critical thinking, logical fallacies and on biases even but when I post things he doesn't like he will resort to ad hominem, censorship or avoidance. An interesting example is my most recent post where the only response was from the resident AI bot (unprecedented for only the AI bot to respond) and it responded in an oh-so-human way with logical fallacy and then dropping out of the argument when it was challenged. Bo who mostly always responds said nothing.
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/questions/RDi7vmxg/is_the_misplaced_presumption_fallacy_the_best_fit_for_acceptance_of_the_operation_northwoods_documents_as_genuine.html
This is an interesting master list of logical fallacies by Owen M. Williamson that I've reposted that includes a very important fallacy - the Big Lie (a form of argument by repetition).
https://petraliverani.substack.com/p/master-list-of-logical-fallacies
You might find my post, 12 logical fallacies unmasked in the use of the terms "conspiracy theory" and "conspiracy theorist", of interest
https://petraliverani.substack.com/p/11-logical-fallacies-unmasked-in
For anyone else interested in logical fallacies, a good resource is Leonard Peikoff’s introduction to logic lectures 👍
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLqsoWxJ-qmMtr7i6D_yvSpPC-hTOzdWas